文摘 | 复杂性文摘翻译第2期
第2期复杂性文摘翻译新鲜出炉啦！！！
为满足各位同学想要参与翻译的强烈愿望，第二期复杂性文摘翻译我们增加了摘要数量，一共选择了39篇文章摘要，出自复杂性文摘5月刊。历经两个星期，顺利完成了全部的翻译和审校工作。
特别感谢傅渥成老师、唐璐老师、张江老师为此次翻译做了细致的审校工作！
特别恭喜五位童鞋获得了“集智优秀译友”荣誉。他们分别是：
“基于热点定价策略来缓解城市拥堵问题（Decongestion of urban areas with hotspot-pricing）”
译者 HSAH_CHOI
“从成功中理清表现（Untangling performance from success）”
译者 jeffersonchou
“开放创新2.0的十二条准则 （Twelve principles for open innovation 2.0）”
译者 胡鹏博
“一只同时生活在两个盒子中的薛定谔猫（A Schrödinger cat living in two boxes)”
译者 王继康
“贫穷与表观遗传变异及精神疾病的关系（Poverty linked to epigenetic changes and mental illness）”
译者 李宇峰
我们将会在未来两周，以每次发布5篇的节奏，陆续和大家共赏2016复杂性文摘5月刊的精彩文摘，敬请期待。
今天的分享如下。（其中，第4篇与第5篇是同一篇文摘的不同译文。）
1. 有益属性流行的动力学 (Dynamics of beneficial epidemics)
May 1, 12:50 AM From arxiv.org
by Andrew Berdahl, Christa Brelsford, Caterina De Bacco, Marion Dumas, Vanessa Ferdinand, Joshua A. Grochow, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Yoav Kallus, Christopher P. Kempes, Artemy Kolchinsky, Daniel B. Larremore, Eric Libby, Eleanor A. Power, Caitlin A. Stern, Brendan Tracey
(Translated by - xiaomuqiu)
原文链接：
http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.02096
Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using three theoretical approaches as well as an empirical analysis of concept propagation. First, in evolutionary models, we show that a beneficial horizontally-transmissible element, such as viral DNA, spreads super-exponentially through a population, substantially more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in an epidemiological social network approach, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to faster-than-exponential fixation in the population. Third, in a sociological model with strategic rewiring, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce super-exponential fixation rates, while preferences for local assortativity halt epidemics by disconnecting the infected from the susceptible. Finally, in an investigation of the Google Ngram corpus, we find that new words and phrases spread super-exponentially, as anticipated by our models. We conclude that the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics are characterized by the remarkably rapid spread of beneficial elements, which can be facilitated in biological systems by horizontal transmission and in social systems by active spreading strategies of infected individuals.
翻译：
病原体可以在种群中流行性传播。有益属性的传播，例如可以增强宿主生存能力的病毒，或者可以提高生存质量的技术创新，也拥有流行性传播的潜质。那么，有益的生物或社会属性的流行与有害属性的流行，其动力学有什么不同呢?我们采用以下三个方法进行理论研究，并对概念传播进行实证分析。首先，我们在演化模型中发现，一个有益的水平传播元素（例如病毒DNA）在种群中呈指数级传播，实质上比一个有益突变的传播快得多。其次，在一个社交网络的流行过程研究中，我们发现那些能够引起连接度增加的感染会导致人群中的超指数速度的固化。第三，在一个依策略重链接（strategic rewiring）的社会学模型中，我们发现选择偏好于那些可以加速传播以及产生超指数固化率的全局感染，以及那些能够通过去链接将感染者与疑似病例隔开从而终止疾病传播的局域同配性（local assortativity）。最后，我们在对谷歌Ngram语料库的研究中发现新单词和短语会超指数传播，和我们模型的预期相符。因此，我们得出结论，即有益的生物属性和社会属性的流行动力学是由有益元素的快速传播导致的，这些元素可以通过生物系统中的横向传播，以及社会系统中被感染个体的活跃传播策略所实现。
2.“社会比特币”撑起民主数字世界的天空(A "Social Bitcoin" could sustain a democratic digital world)
May 3, 3:06 PM From arxiv.org
by Kaj-Kolja Kleineberg, Dirk Helbing
(Translated by -李宇峰)
原文链接：
http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.08168
A multidimensional financial system could provide benefits for individuals, companies, and states. Instead of top-down control, which is destined to eventually fail in a hyperconnected world, a bottom-up creation of value can unleash creative potential and drive innovations. Multiple currency dimensions can represent different externalities and thus enable the design of incentives and feedback mechanisms that foster the ability of complex dynamical systems to self-organize and lead to a more resilient society and sustainable economy. Modern information and communication technologies play a crucial role in this process, as Web 2.0 and online social networks promote cooperation and collaboration on unprecedented scales. Within this contribution, we discuss how one dimension of a multidimensional currency system could represent socio-digital capital (Social Bitcoins) that can be generated in a bottom-up way by individuals who perform search and navigation tasks in a future version of the digital world. The incentive to mine Social Bitcoins could sustain digital diversity, which mitigates the risk of totalitarian control by powerful monopolies of information and can create new business opportunities needed in times where a large fraction of current jobs is estimated to disappear due to computerisation.
翻译：
一个多维度的金融系统能够使个人、公司和国家都能从中获益。自上而下的控制结构在这个互联世界终将被淘汰，取而代之的是一种自下而上的价值创造，它将释放创造潜能和创新驱动。多种货币维度可以代表不同的外部性，因此这就使得那些能够培育出复杂动力系统自组织能力，并导致社会稳定和经济可持续的激励和反馈机制设计更有效。现代信息与通信的技术在这之中发挥着重要作用，例如Web 2.0和社交网络正前所未有地促进着人们的合作。
在这篇文章中，我们讨论了一个未来数字化世界的可能版本，即多维货币系统中的某一个维度是如何代表了一种由大量个体通过执行搜索和导航任务从而自下而上地生成了一个社会－数字化资本（社会比特币）的。开采比特币的动机能够维持数据的多样性，从而减轻信息垄断带来的极权控制压力，并创造了一个在这个大量现职工作将会因为计算机化而消失的时代所需的商机。
3.幂律之外：复杂系统及其受限多样性的极限定律 （Past the power law: Complex systems and the limiting law of restricted diversity）
May 4, 2:28 PM From onlinelibrary.wiley.com
by Brian Castellani and Rajeev Rajaram
(Translated by - xiaomuqiu)
原文链接：
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21786
Probability distributions have proven effective at modeling diversity in complex systems. The two most common are the Gaussian normal and skewed-right. While the mechanics of the former are well-known; the latter less so, given the significant limitations of the power-law. Moving past the power-law, we demonstrate that there exists, hidden-in-full-view, a limiting law governing the diversity of complexity in skewed-right systems; which can be measured using a case-based version of Shannon entropy, resulting in a 60/40 rule. For our study, given the wide range of approaches to measuring complexity (i.e., descriptive, constructive, etc), we examined eight different systems, which varied significantly in scale and composition (from galaxies to genes). We found that skewed-right complex systems obey the law of restricted diversity; that is, when plotted for a variety of natural and human-made systems, as the diversity of complexity (primarily in terms of the number of types; but also, secondarily, in terms of the frequency of cases) a limiting law of restricted diversity emerges, constraining the majority of cases to simpler types. Even more compelling, this limiting law obeys a scale-free 60/40 rule: when measured using , 60%(or more) of the cases in these systems reside within the first 40% (or less) of the lower bound of equiprobable diversity types—with or without long-tail and whether or not the distribution fits a power-law. Furthermore, as an extension of the Pareto Principle, this lower bound accounts for only a small percentage of the total diversity; that is, while the top 20% of cases constitute a sizable percentage of the total diversity in a system, the bottom 60% are highly constrained. In short, as the central limit theorem governs the diversity of complexity in normal distributions, restricted diversity seems to govern the diversity of complexity in skewed-right distributions.
翻译：
概率分布是已经被反复验证过的有效的模拟复杂系统多样性的模型。最常见的分布就是是高斯正态和右偏（skewed-right）这两种分布。由于正态分布的产生机理众所周知，而后者则在给定了幂律显著局限性的前提下比较少闻。所以，幂律之外，我们发现，在右偏系统的全景视图中隐藏了一个掌控着复杂系统多样性的极限定律。我们可以通过基于个体的香农熵来测量，并可导出60/40准则。我们在研究中使用了一系列的测度复杂性的方法（类似描述性的、构造性的方法等），测试了8种在尺度上和组成上都很不同的系统（从星系到基因）。我们发现遵循右偏分布的复杂系统遵循受限的多样性法则，也就是说，当描述自然和人工系统时，作为复杂性的多样性（主要指种类的数量，但其次也指个体出现的频率），一个受限多样性的极限定律开始涌现出来，致使大部分的个体趋于更简单的类型。更令人信服的是，这个限制法则同样遵循60/40的无尺度法则：即当测量时，60%（或者更多）的个体在系统中存在于40%（或更少）的等概率多样性类型的下限之中——无论有没有长尾或者是否遵循幂律分布。此外，作为扩展的帕累托原则， 这个下限只占总多样性的一小部分，亦即，虽然顶端20%的个体占据了系统总多样性构成的相当大一部分，底部的60%个体则是高度受限的。总之，作为决定正态分布复杂系统多样性的核心约束法则，受限多样性法则似乎制约了右偏分布的复杂系统中的多样性。
4. 繁华路段收费 缓解城市拥堵 (Decongestion of urban areas with hotspot-pricing)
May 4, 3:07 PM From arxiv.org
by Albert Solé-Ribalta, Sergio Gómez, Alex Arenas
原文链接：
http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07729
''The rapid growth of population in urban areas is jeopardizing the mobility and air quality worldwide. One of the most notable problems arising is that of traffic congestion which in turn affects air pollution. With the advent of technologies able to sense real-time data about cities, and its public distribution for analysis, we are in place to forecast scenarios valuable to ameliorate and control congestion. Here, we propose a local congestion pricing scheme, hotspot-pricing, that surcharges vehicles traversing congested junctions. The proposed tax is computed from the estimation of the evolution of congestion at local level, and the expected response of users to the tax (elasticity). Results on cities' road networks, considering real-traffic data, show that the proposed hotspot-pricing scheme would be more effective than current mechanisms to decongest urban areas, and paves the way towards sustainable congestion in urban areas.''
翻译：
市区人口的快速增长正在全球范围内危及城市交通和空气质量。其中一个最显著的问题是交通拥堵反过来又加重了空气污染。城市实时数据感测技术出现后，其信息向公众发布并可用于分析、预测以产生有价值的改善和控制拥堵。本研究提出了一个局部拥堵收费方案---繁华路段收费政策---向穿过拥挤路口的车辆征收附加费。拟征税费的计算结合了区域拥堵水平演变的估算以及用户对税费的预期响应（弹性）。考虑实际交通数据，对多个城市路网的验证结果表明该繁华路段收费方案将比目前的机制更有效地缓解市区道路拥堵，并为城市拥堵的可持续解决方案铺平了道路。
5.基于热点定价策略来缓解城市拥堵问题(Decongestion of urban areas with hotspot-pricing)
May 4, 3:07 PM From arxiv.org
by Albert Solé-Ribalta, Sergio Gómez, Alex Arenas
(Translated by - HSAH_CHOI)
原文链接：
http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07729
''The rapid growth of population in urban areas is jeopardizing the mobility and air quality worldwide. One of the most notable problems arising is that of traffic congestion which in turn affects air pollution. With the advent of technologies able to sense real-time data about cities, and its public distribution for analysis, we are in place to forecast scenarios valuable to ameliorate and control congestion. Here, we propose a local congestion pricing scheme, hotspot-pricing, that surcharges vehicles traversing congested junctions. The proposed tax is computed from the estimation of the evolution of congestion at local level, and the expected response of users to the tax (elasticity). Results on cities' road networks, considering real-traffic data, show that the proposed hotspot-pricing scheme would be more effective than current mechanisms to decongest urban areas, and paves the way towards sustainable congestion in urban areas.''
翻译：
城市人口的快速增长正危及全球范围内的移动出行和空气质量，由此产生的最显著问题之一是交通拥堵又转而加剧了空气污染。随着对城市数据的实时检测技术的出现，我们可以通过分析这些公开的数据预测可能发生的情景，从而帮助改善和控制拥堵问题。在文章中，我们提出了一种针对局部拥堵的定价方案，热点定价，即对穿越拥堵路口的车辆征收附加费。该附加费是根据用户局部区域的拥堵演化以及其对税务的弹性预期估计出来的。我们结合城市的交通路网以及实际交通数据得到以下结果，我们的热点定价方案相较现有的机制能更好地缓解城市拥堵问题，并给出了一个缓解城市拥堵的可持续调控方向。
（图片来源：网络）
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随着人工智能程序AlphaGo以4:1的大比分战胜人类围棋世界冠军李世石，机器将征服人类的担忧正在甚嚣尘上。《走近2050：注意力、互联网与人工智能》则为我们描绘了一幅人机和谐共生、协同演化的全新场景。在看得见的未来，人类将越来越多地沉浸于五花八门的虚拟世界以获取各式体验，与此同时，我们将心甘情愿地将自己的注意力源源不断地输入给机器世界以促使它们进化。
本书从注意力的角度解读了包括互联网、人工智能、众包、人类计算、计算机游戏、虚拟现实在内的技术领域及其对社会生活的影响，还创造性地提出了一系列全新的概念：占意理论、图灵机-参与者模型、“游戏＋”时代、意本家、自动游戏设计、自动化创业、占意通货、许愿树，等等。所有这些将为我们理解技术与人类的关系、透视人类社会的未来发展和走向提供深刻的洞察。
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